Event Horizons: Trading Earnings and Binary Catalysts

Event Horizons is the curriculum on trading earnings, FDA decisions, Fed announcements, and other binary catalysts. The math of event trading differs from ordinary directional or premium-selling strategies — IV crush, expected moves, and post-event regime shifts dominate the P&L.

Core concepts covered: how IV ramps into events and crushes after, how to compute expected moves from option chain pricing, when long premium structures (straddles, strangles, backspreads) make sense vs short premium structures (iron condors, iron butterflies), and how to size event positions to survive surprise outcomes. The curriculum emphasizes that retail traders consistently underestimate IV crush impact relative to the realized move.

Practical framework: before trading any binary event, calculate the implied move (the option chain's pricing of expected post-event range). If your thesis requires a move smaller than the implied, sell premium with defined risk. If it requires a larger move, buy premium and accept the IV crush risk. If your thesis is uncertain, skip the event — it's the discipline most retail traders lack.

Frequently Asked Questions

What's the safest way to trade earnings as a beginner?

Defined-risk structures (iron condors, iron butterflies) sized to survive the implied move. Avoid naked short premium until you have several full earnings cycles of experience.

Should I ever hold a position through earnings?

Only if the position thesis is robust to either outcome (e.g., a long-dated covered call where earnings is one of many events the position will weather).

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